January is the time for new year resolutions and ironing out investment plans for the year. I’ve researched last year’s analytical trends in blockchain and cryptocurrency to better predict the opportunities for profit. Let’s begin with Cryptocurrency and Blockchain. Research from Coindesk found that value is becoming more isolated to the application layer. For example, L1s capture 90% of the market share in terms of their Market capitalization. However, they are only collecting 12% of fees generated. Economic forces are pushing down the price of Layer 1 blockchains allowing more inflows and competition between blockchains. Essentially, layer 1 blockchain security and throughput became commoditized.
Progressing through 2026 the narratives I will monitor are Real World Assets (RWA), Decentralized Exchanges (DEX), and Non-Custodial Protocols. Below are application-level narratives that drove prices the past two years.
RWAs are split into 3 segments: Treasuries, Money Markets of Corporate Securities, and Commodities. Tokenized versions of Gold from Paxos and Tether (PAXG and XAUT) make up over 80% of commodity activity. Per Cryptoslate, Ondo finance controls 51.6 by value of the RWA market.
Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePin) is a category that is seeming to gain momentum given the rise of AI funding and the push towards more data centers. This massive movement of capital is driving up the price of memory and everyday electronics. There may be opportunities for these projects to find more use cases and provide an outlet for new infrastructure to support the move to a new type of data storage and telecommunications.
A snapshot on January 18th from Messari shows the mindshare and sentiment for different sectors in the blockchain ecosystem. Some of the cryptocurrencies that I will monitor fall into sectors that have increased month over month.
Since the GENIUS ACT passed the United States House of Representatives and was signed into law by President Trump stablecoin projects are on the rise. Banks, Fintechs, and US government entities have all launched stable tokens in the past year. The State of Wyoming launched their State backed stablecoin frontier (FRNT) this month. There are carveouts in the Bill that allow non-custodial protocols to interact with stablecoins and banking infrastructure without needing banking licenses. There is an opportunity for developers, investors, and businesses to partner with these non-custodial protocols in order to build on stablecoin technology. The Trump’s family stablecoin and crypto project World Liberty FI partnered with the protocol Dolomite. This one example FinTech and banks incorporating blockchain protocols into their business models.
Blockchain Performance and Prediction Markets:
January Crypto Watch List:
The DTCC (Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation) will use the CANTON Network (CC) to tokenize their securities. Canton’s value proposition is a privacy based blockchain for institutions wholesale settlements. This project falls into the RWA sector and won’t be the only blockchain that the DTCC uses. JP Morgan recently announced they will tokenize securities. Canton offers price appreciation exposure to its cryptocurrency as the network grows and the opportunity to become involved as a validator.
GEODNET’s (GEOD) purpose is to promote and deploy the world’s largest RTK network for everyone. RTK allows for positional tracking using satellites. Considering the massive investment into self-driving cars and autonomous drones, this may prove to be a long-term investment that includes digital and physical infrastructure.
TRON (TRX) is a leader in global remittance. Stablecoin balances are driven by centralized exchange settlements, offshore payments, and custodial flows. They’ve had a steady growth in price performance the past few years. If the Tron blockchain maintains steady revenue and the number of active wallets increases so will the price.
DOLO is a decentralized exchange (DEX) that offers lending, borrowing, and margin trading services. Their recent partnership with WLFI is a sign that WLFI is serious about using non custodial services to gain stablecoin market share. I will monitor their liquidity, revenue and volume for insight into the protocol’s profitability and measure USD inflows for continued growth. Time will tell if this protocol will be a long-term play.
Prediction Markets:
I’m betting on the prediction that China will invade Taiwan by June. It has been summarized by experts that the ideal time for China to invade Taiwan would be between the months of March and May due to weather conditions. As of writing this, the odds on Polymarket are 7%.
My next pick is for the Iranian leader to be out by the end of 2026. PolyMarket has the odds at 50% so there isn’t a huge upside. However, the man is almost 90 years old, and the recent riots and mass killings make me assume he’ll have to go one way or another. As I heard it said on the Geopolitical Cousins podcast this could be a scenario where the CEO is replaced and the board of directors stays on.
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